Forecast accuracy

We record the NOAA/NCEP models we ingest — the National Blend of Models, HRRR, RRFS, and GFS — and grade each one against NOAA analysis. The forecast Smarter Weather serves is a priority blend with NBM first, then HRRR, RRFS, or GFS when the primary is stale. This page is those source models' scores, not a separately trained Smarter Weather model.

Anyone can say a forecast is accurate. This page says by how much — per model, per variable, and per how far ahead it was made. Where a model is worse than guessing the local average, the number below is negative, and we publish it anyway.

How these scores are calculated — the pairing, the formulas, the 30-sample floor, and what we withhold.